Another decisive week for the financial markets?- the Bitcoin Holds Support at $19,000, but the rebounds are increasingly weak. For its part, the US market is also at the level of the last support before a probable panic movement. The week is likely to be important once again, as buyers will have to defend these levels in a complicated geopolitical and macroeconomic context. Can risky assets rally to these levels? Is the dollar done climbing? We take stock!
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Bitcoin: soon the return of volatility?
The weeks follow each other and resemble each other. Bitcoin once again retains the bracket at $19,000. The cryptocurrency market is falling volatility and it usually doesn’t last very long:
Bitcoin is bearishthe operators are unable to reverse the trend and the price is still moving below the bearish trendline. In the event of a rebound, this trendline could resistance like resistance to $29,000. Before that, it will be necessary to hold the current lows and close above $25,200 in order to regain a bullish momentum on this asset.
Buyers seem interested in any feedback at the support level at $19,000. On the other hand, rebounds are more and more shy and sellers could take advantage of this to push the price below the recent lows. the institutional bias (EMA 9/ EMA 18) done again resistanceit will be necessary to get rid of it to hope for a rally against the trend.
the momentum blocks, once again, at the level of the bearish trendline. This shows the fragility on the buyer side, it will be necessary to get out of this zone to manage to regain buying strength. Nevertheless, a bullish divergence could set in if the price holds the lows and the RSI closes above 49.
On derivatives markets, operators do not seem to let go and bet on a rebound from the king of cryptocurrencies:
In the very short term, traders are betting on the rise. Recently, the number of open positions (open interest) has increased sharply in a context of funding rate (costs paid by actors) neutral to positive and a long/short ratio very upward trending. The price falls, but the behavior of operators does not change and this does not necessarily bode well. Indeed, a bottom is often built in a context of extreme fear, and this is not the case at the moment.
Bitcoin is falling in volatility and holding onto June 2022 lows for now. outperform the US indices, which have already made a new low. Is Bitcoin lagging behind or will the buyers manage to revive the momentum?
Gold struggles to hold support, dollar rebounds
The dollar rebounded at the level of the institutional bias
While risky assets are at levels of brackets important, the dollar continues to put pressure on these assets. The dollar is not letting go, the buyers have their hands on thesafe-haven asset of the year 2022:
The dollar recently validated its support and took the opportunity to make a new high. Each return to the level of the institutional bias is bought by the actors. As we know, it will take a change in the dynamics of the dollar to review risky assets to regain value. For the moment, the macroeconomic context is complicated and operators take refuge in the dollar. In the event of a bullish continuation, the dollar could find 119 dotsa level of resistance significant dating from the 2002 highs.
The momentum continues to draw bearish divergencesthis indicates a loss of buying strength, but they can accumulate during a period of strong bullishness.
Gold Looks Fragile at Support
Gold is struggling to perform and sellers have the opportunity to change primary dynamics of this asset:
The gold is in a tidythe price fluctuates between $1,690 and $1,970 since April 2020. The buyers have failed at the top of the range and the sellers are now trying to break the support weekly. In the latest editionwe mentioned the possibility of a rejection at the level of bearish trendline and institutional bias. For the moment, the buyers are unable to retake the support and the price risks slipping below the last low. A long-term bearish momentum could set in if the buyers fail to retake the support.
Momentum is moving above the bullish trendline, it remains to build bullish momentum with ascending lows and highs. Buyers have the option to hold support in price action, but price action remains fragile as long as the momentum does not change on contact with support.
The US market on the edge of the precipice
The S&P 500 could fall to $3,500
the support is put under pressure, buyers have to defend it again:
The trend is clearly bearish on the S&P 500. The sellers managed to print a new low and the bounce at the support level was only short-lived. Indeed, the course did not even have the strength to touch the institutional bias before falling once again to the level of the bracket at $3,650. Now, it looks likely to revisit the S&P 500 at $3,500, the next strong support. In case of panic, it is not impossible to review the American index at $3,200.
The momentum is brittleit failed to stay above the bearish trendline. However the RSI divergesit did not go lower again when the price fell below $3,640. However, the divergence will only be confirmed if the RSI closes above 60.
NASDAQ must hold support at $11,000
The NASDAQ is hardly in better shape than the S&P 500, it absolutely must maintain the bracket at $11,000 to avoid a panic movement which would bring the price back to $9,700. The price would then register a fall of around 12% more:
The price is slipping dangerously below the bracket at $11,000. Buyers must show up quickly if we want to avoid a panic movement which could cause the price to fall by more than 10%. A bounce remains possible in the direction of $12,000, but the institutional bias should resist. Also, the price continues to evolve under the bearish trendline and, as long as this is the case, the course will remain brittle.
The RSI fell back below the bearish trendline and this shows the fragility of the asset. On the other hand, a bullish divergence could be set up in the event of a fence above 58 of RSI. It looks like sellers are running out of steam, but buyers will have to take advantage of this.
Bitcoin has been stronger than US indices for a few weeks. While the US indices have made a new low, Bitcoin is currently holding support as well as the last low dating from last June. However, the players play the rebound at the level of the support on the derivatives markets and this is not necessarily a good omen. The dollar remains bullish and continues to put pressure on risky assets. All falls are bought by traders who remain risk-off oriented for the moment. Gold is feverish, the safe haven asset is experiencing a complicated year 2022 while the macroeconomic context seems to be in its favour, with high inflation.
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