Bitcoin in An Air pocket? – The Weekly Macro Update
The crisis continues for cryptos – While the FTX affair has left its mark on cryptocurrencies, it seems that Genesis is also close to bankruptcy. For its part, Bitcoin marks a new low, while altcoins like Ethereum, or the Binance Coin, maintain their low from last June. With the US market on the rise again, could it bring cryptos with it once the FTX affair is digested? This is Le Point Macro Hebdo!
Bitcoin continues to fall
The king of cryptocurrencies is weakit marks a new low in this complicated context:
Despite the recent new low, the situation remains the same. The level at $19,000 will be very important, because it has not been tested as resistance for the moment. If the price is rejected at this level, the price could fall until the next bracket at $11,500 (-40%). On the other hand, if the buyers succeed in recovering the area at $19,000and to exceed the bearish trendline, the price could recover. Also, the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is bearish and could once again serve as dynamic resistance in the coming days. At the moment, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is bearish.
The momentum is very solid. The stochastic continues to move above the last low in June, while the price made a new low. The current movement may be just one DETOUR. To confirm this, it will be necessary in this case to repeat the $19,000 as support.
At the same time, whales with more 10,000 BTC in portfolio seem to want accumulate. Be careful, these are players who are aiming for the long term, but this shows that they are interested in current levels:
Since mid-October, the whales pulled the trigger hard. These actors had distributed since the beginning of 2021, they have started to change their behavior since May 2022. This does not mean that the price will rise again quickly, but it is interesting to study the behavior of big wallets.
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The dollar continues to develop its top? Gold attempts a bullish recovery
The dollar must be rejected at 109 points
The dollar index is showing feverishness for a few weeks, it will be necessary to confirm in the coming weeks:
The course evolves under the former 109 point support. This is the first time since June 2021 that the institutional bias has crossed bearish in unit of time 3 days. These EMAs could act as dynamic resistance in the coming days. A weak dollar would allow a return of theattractiveness of risky assetsit is for this reason that the level at 109 points must operate as resistance. A return to the support level at 102.5 points would be beneficial for risky assets (US market, cryptocurrencies).
The momentum is showing brittle, it marks troughs and descending peaks. The momentum should continue for buyers of risky assets.
Gold is trying to come back up
After a complicated year, gold is trying to end in style. For the moment, the price is moving above the weekly support at $1,690 :
The institutional bias is crossing bullishthis could allow a bounce in the coming days. The objective of the buyers is to keep the weekly support. If the support is maintained, is likely to find the price of gold at the level of resistance at $1,970. For the moment, the primary trend remains intact, but it will be necessary to confirm a bullish exit from this tidy to keep it. Attention, a fall below the support could lead to a new low, this scenario would invalidate the double bottom set up from the fence above $1,730.
Momentum continues to show lows and rising highs, momentum needs to continue to hope to see gold rally again. rise.
The US market is on the rise again
S&P 500 retains support at $3,900
Last week, the price was above $3,900, an important area for this asset. For now, the S&P500 keeps this area as support :
The price of the American index remains febrile, as it marked a new low in October 2022 and the V bottom structure is likely to remain. Market lows generally occur in two stages, so the price could quickly find resistance and might come back to test the lows at $3,500. It will be necessary to exceed the resistance at $4,150 and the bearish trendline to find an attractive course. Until then, it would be healthy to find a trough, higher than the previous one at $3,500.
The momentum retains its solidity despite the new lows marked by the price. However, the area to 58 of RSI could do resistance in the coming days. It will be necessary to go beyond this zone to regain buying strength.
Apple is trying to develop a double bottom
The American giant is one of the most capitalized stocks on the American market, and one of the few to keep its head above water. For now, the support at $135 holds:
Since September 2022, the price has fluctuated between the bracket at $135 and the resistance at $152. While the course is in contact with the resistance, buyers have the opportunity to change the momentum every week. This would require a fence greater than $158 in 3 days, then in weekly time unit. Whatever happens, the course will remain brittle as long as he’s stuck under the bearish trendline initiated in January 2022.
The RSI had been marking lows and descending highs since late 2021, it looks like the momentum is changing. To confirm the dynamic bullish on the RSI, it will be necessary to break out of the zone to 62 of RSI. Apple is one of the few resilient assets given the macroeconomic context, the support should not $135 give in.
BTC is in a delicate situation. The king of cryptocurrencies continues to fall and mark new lows. For this asset, the $19,000 area is very important. It will be necessary to be attentive to the evolution of the price in contact with this zone. The dollar must be rejected at 109 points to allow risky assets to express themselves. Here again, we will have to be attentive to the evolution of the dollar index in the weeks to come. For the moment, the US market is benefiting from this, but it will take more to confirm an end to the bear market. In this complicated period, Apple is one of the few large-cap assets to remain solid. The weekly support at $135 must hold to attempt a change in momentum.