11th bear month – The Bitcoin (BTC) price starts the week with a red candlestick, and with a retest of support, after the rise towards $20,000 was stopped short by a major resistance in the very short term.
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Towards a return to $19,200 for the price of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin price climbed to $19,707 over the weekend. Cryptocurrency is trading at $19,387 today, October 24, 2022, as of this writing. Its price is currently recording a daily loss of 1.01%.
The 5-hour chart of Bitcoin price shows that, referring to recent swings, the cryptocurrency managed to break through resistance at $19,160 and then $19,340 over the weekend.
However, the bullish continuation was halted by resistance around $19,680. After the rejection, Bitcoin is in the process of retest support at levels near $19,340. If this support breaks, the cryptocurrency could see support in the $19,160-$19,200 area.
The end of the bear markets for the month of December?
In the very short term, the price of Bitcoin is thus still struggling to get closer to $20,000, in order to be able to win them back. On a longer timescale, forecasts now give signals that tend to confirm the end of bear marketsbefore the end of this year.
In his tweet today, developer James Bull shared a graph that shows the successions of bear market and of bull marketwhile pointing out that “the average bitcoin bear market lasts 12.5 months,” and the price of bitcoin currently going through its 11th month under bear pressure.
James Bull also clarified that “the FED is considering stopping the rise in interest rates”. Such a macroeconomic shift could effectively structurally alter the direction of the trend in risky asset markets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price: the FED soon on the side of the bulls?
On upcoming interest rate hikes, Compound Capital Advisors Founder and CEO Charlie Bilello shared “current market expectations regarding the trajectory of the fed funds rate.”
A rise of 75 basis points is expected next November, against 50 and 25 basis points in December 2022 and February 2023 respectively. There would then follow a long “pause”, followed by a drop in rates which would begin in December 2023 and continue into 2024.
Bitcoin continues to wander below $20,000. Hopes for the start of a lasting bullish recovery now rest on the decisions of the FED, which could therefore be less hawkish about the next interest rate hikes.
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