Bitcoin on support, decisive week for risky assets – Point Macro Hebdo
The market continues to fall – the bitcoin once again fell below the psychological threshold of $20,000. A few days after The Merge, Ethereum fell by almost 25% bringing the course under $1,300. Cryptocurrencies seem to be under the control of sellers and the week is likely to be eventful. Indeed, the FED is meeting on Wednesday for a new rate hike which should be between 75 bps (0.75%) and 100 bps (1%). We will also have a speech by Jerome Powell on Friday to close the week. The market could go one way or another depending on the decision to raise rates. Review of important levels in the Weekly Macro Point!
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Bitcoin drops below $20,000
The last week, it was mentioned that many sellers were blocked under $20,000. The market has fallen back below this level and this is a real gift for these players. Now, sellers can take advantage of this to drop below the latest low at $17,600 :
Indecision is present on bitcoin, but buyers show up and defend for the fifth time this bracket at $19,500. If the sellers prevail, the price could drop to $12,000. A move of this magnitude (-38%) would hurt altcoins who are trying to recover in this very badly. bearmarket.
For now, the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) pushes back all buyer-initiated bounces. We should quickly get out of this dangerous zone, because the more a medium is tested, the more it becomes brittle. In the event of a rebound, the price could reach the resistance at $28,500 as well as bearish trendline.
the momentum is always febrilethe RSI cannot break out of the bearish trendline. However, a bullish divergence could be set up in the event of a fence above 50 of RSI. This would show a weakening of the selling force and allow the price to return – at least – close to the resistance at $24,500.
Risk off: the dollar is hesitant, gold falls below support!
The dollar recovers in extremis
The dollar remains hard currency of the moment and risky assets are struggling to perform. The US currency needs to weaken so that risky assets can be attractive again. For this, a strong rejection under 108 dots is necessary to show that the buyers are no longer present:
Currently, the dollar index remains close to the resistance. The price is hesitant, but the momentum remains bullish on this asset. Recall that Bitcoin and risk assets fell when the dollar index built bullish momentum last summer. You will have to wait a dynamic change on the dollar index to regain color on the side of risky assets.
Momentum is showing bearish divergence. Buyers seem to be losing momentum, but that needs to translate to price as well. If the RSI drops below 53the momentum would again diverge.
Gold drops below $1,690
The scenario mentioned last week has finally taken place. The course was pushed back the level of institutional bias and the price fell below support :
It’s here lowest fence since April 2020 for gold in sight three days. Gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset, does not benefit from the fall in risky assets. On the contrary, if the buyers do not recover, the bullish primary momentum could be questioned. Since March 2022, gold has fallen by more than 20%. This is not nothing for an asset with such a high capitalization.
The course confirms the bearish momentum and evolves under bearish trendline. If the buyers recover, a bullish divergence could be set up at the level of the RSI. For this, the RSI must close above 47.
The US market is moving at an important support level
The week is likely to be important. As explained in the introduction, them rates will be raised and the market should move according to the decision made on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 must take over $3,900
The S&P 500 slips dangerously below $3,900the last bulwark before a likely new low in 2022. Buyers need to retake this important level:
The S&P 500 falls below support, but buyers are trying to react by leaving only a wick below this level. The course enters the reloading area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement). The price could change momentum in this area, it is a area conducive to buyers.
Momentum is moving above the bearish trendline, the momentum is in favor of buyers. If there are no surprises when rates rise, the price could recover here. Whatever happens, the course will have to break the bearish trendline installed for several months.
NASDAQ drops below $12,000
The S&P 500 should resume the bracket at $3,900the NASDAQ must recover the bracket at $12,000. He too is in the reloading area :
Buyers may defend this area, but price seems weaker than the S&P 500. The price is evolving in an area conducive to buyers, but we will have to wait to find bullish signals to avoid entering a position on an asset that can make a new low.
The momentum is always brittlebecause the bearish trendline pushes back the RSI. We will have to break this resistance to hope to resume healthy bullish momentum.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ fell dangerously below brackets important. This week could be decisive for these assets. Buyers need to show up to avoid new lows.
the Bitcoin is fighting back, but the support has been tested for the fifth time in a few months. Buyers need to hold to avoid a fresh low in the days ahead. Gold is not a risky asset, but its primary dynamic is currently being questioned. In a context like this, it should nevertheless increase in value and play its role as a safe haven. The dollar, on the other hand, acts as a safe haven asset and continues to put pressure on risky assets. The buyers seem to be starting to lose momentum, but that should translate into a change in momentum in price. The US market is also at important supports, Wednesday’s meeting should set the direction for the next few weeks. Can buyers hold on and relaunch the momentum?
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