Bitcoin ready to wake up? The US market is picking up – Le point Macro-Hebdo

Decisive week on the financial markets? – This week, the quarterly results of the largest American companies will be revealed. Companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Apple have very high capitalization and their quarterly results have a huge impact on the financial markets. A sort of barometer of economic activity. the Bitcoin is highly correlated to the US marketpoor results could heavily impact the cryptocurrency market by ricochet.

This macroeconomic analysis is brought to you in collaboration with CryptoTrader™ and its algorithmic trading solution finally accessible to individuals.

Bitcoin close to regaining volatility?

For more than a month, Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering between $18,200 and $20,400. The volatility of the safe-haven cryptocurrency asset is plummeting, but a big move could be coming soon:

Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (1D)

Bitcoin draws a tidy Between $24,500 and $19,000. Currently at the bottom of the range, the price is approaching the bearish trendline initiated in August 2022. As long as the price is moving below, the support can drop and cause a panic movement below the low at $17,600. To avoid this scenario, buyers need to break this trendline and change momentum on a daily basis. For this, it is necessary to close above $20,500. It would not be enough to exceed the bearish trendline, as the price can slide along this trendline if the buyers lack strength. To relaunch a bullish momentum, it is necessary to exceed this trendline and change momentum.

If the buyers manage to change their momentum, the price could stall at the level of the resistance at $24,500. Whatever happens, as long as Bitcoin does not go back above the zone to $29,000the price will remain brittle and bearish.

The momentum is building up contract, the RSI is in total indecision. It would be positive to see the momentum exceed the level at 55then 62 of RSI. This would show strength on the buy side.

Safe-haven assets in a range

The dollar is still in an uptrend

The dollar is still in uptrend and while this is the case, risky assets like BTC and cryptocurrencies will struggle to perform. In the short term, a tidy sets up for the dollar:

The dollar is setting up a daily range.
Dollar index chart (3D)

The dollar keeps the institutional bias (EMA 9/ EMA 18), it will take a strong rejection below the EMAs for a change in momentum to take place (red arrow). A fence above 115 dots would mean a bullish continuation, and that would not be positive for Bitcoin and altcoins. For the moment, the trend remains intact and the probabilities are oriented towards a bullish continuation.

The momentum is always bullish, the RSI is still above the bullish trendline. It would take a rejection at that level to mark the top on the dollar.

Gold is stuck between $1,730 and $1,615

gold is brittle since the start of 2022. While safe-haven assets should benefit from the disastrous macroeconomic and geopolitical situation, gold is failing to perform:

Gold is in a range between $1730 and $1615.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

Gold is clearly in downtrend since April. the weekly support is threatened, but buyers can re-enter the range in the event of a close above $1,730. For the moment, the price is stuck between $1,730 and $1,615, it will be necessary to be attentive to the exit of the range. Two scenarios are to be expected:

  • The price closes above $1,730 : a bullish scenario gets ready. The price reenters the weekly range between $1,970 and $1,690buyers would then have the opportunity to push to the top of the range.
  • The price closes below $1,615 : a bearish scenario which could bring the course back to $1,550 or even $1,450. This scenario would change the long-term dynamics of gold.

The US market is recovering

The S&P 500 climbs back above $3,700

After several weeks of decline, the S&P 500 regains color and climbs by almost 10% since the low on October 13:

The S&P 500 climbs almost 10%.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

Despite the significant increase in 10% since the last low at $3,500the dynamic is bearish on the S&P 500. The index marked a bottom lower than the previous one, the sellers have their hands on this asset. Resistance is approaching $3,900 as well as the institutional bias, it would not be illogical to see the index breathe a little. The reaction is interesting, now the buyers need to defend the support at $3,500 to change dynamics. As long as the asset is under the bearish trendlinethe price will remain brittle. It will be necessary to break free from this trendline to regain interest on the buyer side.

The RSI once again crosses above the bearish trendline. It is interesting to note that the RSI does not mark new lows while the price continues to print lower lows than the previous ones. It seems that the sellers are running out of steam, a bullish divergence could be confirmed in the event of a close above 60 of RSI.

NASDAQ breaks back above support at $11,000

The NASDAQ climbs 10%buyers defend support at $11,000 :

The NASDAQ climbs 10%.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

Buyers showed up under the bracket at $11,000, it will be necessary to confirm this upward movement by changing momentum in the weeks to come. At the moment the trend is bearish on this asset and the price is already at the level of a dynamic resistance. If the buyers push, the price could go back to the level of the next resistance at $12,000.

The momentum is solid, the RSI holds the last lows marked in January and May 2022. This shows that the sellers are running out of steam, but the buyers need to take advantage of it. If the trend is strong, many divergences can appear without the price changing direction. This is why buyers need to change their dynamics and break the bearish trendline.

the Bitcoin drops in volatility and continues to veg around $19,000, but that could change soon. The price is approaching the bearish trendline and the market could finally take a direction. The dollar is taking a break, but the momentum remains bullish for now. Gold is below weekly support, buyers need to show up early to avoid changing the long-term momentum on this asset. For its part, the US market is recovering. Buyers are showing up at important supports and bullish divergences continue to appear. Did the capitulation take place in the traditional market?

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John R. Zepeda

I have extensive experience working as a content writer in the areas of cryptocurrencies and finance, where I create interesting pieces that both inform and engage their audiences.

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