Credit Suisse Shakes Market – Will Bitcoin Rebound? The Weekly Macro Update
The market is close to collapsing…- The market is sailing in troubled waters and Credit Suisse is not helping the situation. Indeed, rumors are circulating about a probable insolvency of the bank while its price has collapsed since the beginning of 2022 (-50%). The cryptocurrency market is shaking, but Bitcoin retains support. Can the market recover after so much bad news? This is the Weekly Macro Point!
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Bitcoin Holds Support at $19,000
Bitcoin remains steady despite the bad macroeconomic news that continues to flow daily. In this context, Bitcoin continues to hold the support :
Since the low found last June, Bitcoin has still not given a clear direction. Buyers and sellers are neutralizing each other and are building a zone of tidy Between $18,500 and $25,000. The buyers’ objective is to change short-term momentum and then close above $25,000.
For the moment, the sellers have the upper hand, as the price is still moving below the bearish trendline and the dynamic remains bearish in contact with the substrate. Moreover, the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is always bearish and he could do resistance in the coming days.
Momentum attempts a new breakout at the bearish trendline. It would be necessary to break free from this resistant zone to regain buying strength. Also, a bullish divergence could appear in the event of a close above 48 of RSI. This would show that the sellers are running out of steam and, perhaps, the beginning of a change in momentum for Bitcoin.
At the level of derivatives, the data is not comforting. After several months wandering in contact with the supportthe actors do not seem to be in fear:
the funding rate (expenses paid by the actors) makes it possible to understand the behaviour players, because it indicates whether the players are betting massively up or down. Here, the funding remains globally neutral and does not show extreme fear. Also, the long/short ratio is generally on the rise. Today, the actors are rather in the process of bet on a bullish recovery bitcoin. The situation still does not resemble the summer of 2021 with a strongly negative funding rate.
Dollar slows, gold rebounds
The dollar falls, but the trend remains bullish
After getting closer to 115 dotsthe dollar falls:
The dollar loses a few percent, but it retains the uptrend and the parabola remains intact. In the weeks to come, the institutional bias could make support one more time. To hope for a top on the dollar index, it would take a rejection more important with a break in the 109 point support. At the moment the trend is bullish and, as long as this is the case, the probabilities are skewed towards a bounce.
The momentum is always bullishand the RSI approaches the bullish trendline. Here again, it would take a breakout of this trendline to show a buyer fatigue. Currently, the dollar is bullish and as long as it is, risky assets will struggle to perform.
The FTX platform has just given its customers the possibility of betting on the dollar index (DXY) thanks to a perpetual contract. This happens after several months of rise of the dollar against a basket of currencies and the timing is to be analyzed. We must be careful with this type of product offered to the general public after a meteoric risebecause it sometimes signals the end of the rise of the asset in question.
Gold recovers and marks a deviation?
We talked about it in previous editions, and in particular this one. Gold had the opportunity to recover by recovering the bracket at $1,690. The buyers succeeded in making the sellers bend:
We note a good reaction from buyers who manage to cross over the important zone at $1,690. Attention, the price evolves at the level of the institutional bias and the lowest remains brittle since it is a “V bottom”. It will be necessary to change dynamics in contact with the support to avoid a panic movement under the support to $1,690. the bearish scenario is materialized with the red arrow in case of rejection of the course at the level of the institutional bias. For its part, the momentum is recovering and the RSI breaks the bearish trendline.
The safe-haven asset does not really act as such at the moment, but capital flows and it is possible that institutional players will be interested in gold at the bottom of tidy. It will be necessary to watch the evolution of gold and the dollar index in the weeks to come.
The US market recovers in extremis
The US market is on the precipice. For now, buyers are holding onto the June 2022 lows, but for how long?
Taking liquidity below $3,600 for the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 slipped below the last low of last June. However, the buyers try to save the index and the price recovers:
The course is extremely brittle and the bracket at $3,500 seems almost inevitable. However, in the short term, buyers are showing interest below the June low as seen in these wicks. It remains possible that liquidity has been taken under $3,600and the price rises in the direction of the resistance at $3,900. Whatever happens, the course is very brittle and we will have to wait for a change in dynamics to avoid a panic movement below $3,600.
Momentum has fallen back below bearish trendline. On the other hand, the momentum remains encouraging, as buyers have the possibility of marking a bullish divergence in the event of a fence above 60 of RSI.
NASDAQ holds support at $11,000
The NASDAQ retains the bracket at $11,000, despite the short break below last June’s low. Like the S&P 500, the buyers reacted and now we must hold the support to avoid a fall of 15% additional. Indeed, if the buyers fail, the price could find the next bracket at $9,700. In the event of a rebound, the price will quickly reach the level of the resistance at $12,000.
The momentum is always solidit evolves above the bearish trendline. Also, a bullish divergence could be set up in the event of a fence above 59 of RSI.
The US market must recover here to avoid panic movements under the last brackets. Whatever happens, it is advisable to remain cautious and to wait for a change of dynamics in contact with these supports.
the Bitcoin attempts to retain support $19,000, but it is beginning to be fragile. We would have to initiate a change in momentum to avoid slipping below the last lows of last June. The dollar is falling, but the momentum remains bullish for now. For its part, gold tries to keep the range between $1,690 and $1,970. Gold is perhaps in the process of regaining interest for institutional players, we will have to be attentive to the evolution of the price in the weeks to come. The US market is recovering in extremis, but the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ remain fragile. Note that Bitcoin did not drop again, unlike the American indices. Is this a sign of a future outperformance of Bitcoin against US indices in the coming weeks?
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