In this new weekend crypto update, it’s time to take stock of the month of September, which was quite violent on the financial markets. While the dollar is gaining strength and the FED maintains a restrictive monetary policy, the American indices are unscrewing. As the cryptocurrency market is correlated, it has also taken a bearish direction. Tough period for risk-on assets. What to consider for the month of October? In this analysis, you will discover the key levels to watch over the next few weeks, you will also have an update on the situation of Ethereum against Bitcoin, a pair that must be watched imperatively in the current market context.
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A bullish rally for the monthly close thanks to Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Not having been able to recover the resistance at 943 billion, the market took a bearish direction. Indeed, the announced objective of 845 billion in the previous analysis has been almost validated. The current level to watch is $919 billion. Let’s see if the market will register a new bullish high and break free. In this context, the resistance to 943 billion will always be the first objective to have in mind. Moreover, the MA100 (a good indicator of the trend) is in confluence with this technical level (as well as the EMA200 which is close to it).
If the market manages to push in H4 as agreed, why not consider a return on the MA100 which currently stands at $970 billion. It plays a non-negligible role and could act as a resistance. Moreover, you can see that the EMA25 and the EMA32 are in confluence with the resistance at 943. This confirms once again the importance, for the market, of regaining this level.
Altcoins ready to push higher?
Altcoins have once again returned to the all time high of 2017, a level where a reaction has taken place on several occasions. The trend is currently bearish, altcoins are under resistance at $375/378 billion. A horizontal level as well as the MA100 are there. For the moment, impossible to get rid of it in H4. Let’s see if altcoins can do well and retake the 200 EMA at 380 billion. If they get there, a small rally may occur towards $388 billion.
The 395 billion are possible if the conditions are favorable to the expansion of the latter. For now, it’s best to maintain a bearish bias as long as we’re trading below current levels. In the short term, altcoins are holding onto the 13/25/32 EMA. A dip lower than 370 billion with a bearish restest of the 3 EMAs could be an opportunity to short. The logical target will be the September 21 low. If the 358 billion let go, the 346 billion dollars is not an unreasonable level to have in mind. Of course, if Ethereum and Bitcoin manage to push higher, this will allow a bullish pushing context for this end of the month. Depending on the evolution of this capitalization, we will be able to reinforce the bullish or bearish biases on very specific assets.
Bitcoin is pausing in its momentum of dominance?
On two occasions, Bitcoin failed to maintain dominance above 41.32%. It is a major technical threshold which, formerly, was a support. As long as the asset does not manage to get rid of it, it is useless to imagine a bigger bullish push towards the MA100 and the EMA 200 as well as the blue zone at 43.20%. At the moment, bitcoin dominance has lost a technical threshold at 40.60/40.70%. If he manages to take it back, we can consider another attempt to break out of 41.32%, this would allow the king of cryptocurrencies to leave Ethereum and altcoins on the sidelines and set the pace for the market.
However, if it fails, we can also consider a range period. The objective is to preserve the previous low which is at 40.04%. This will prevent a trend reversal and give bitcoin the opportunity to regain strength during the month of October. At the same time, it would be in a favorable environment to witness some increases on altcoins as well as Ethereum. Dominance is a very interesting indicator of the path that capital takes within the market. This allows you to have a good approach to market conditions.
Ethereum continues to lose strength
Our scenario from last weekend did indeed take shape on the Ethereum/Bitcoin pair. Having lost the 0.073 BTC, a bearish retest in H4 allowed to extend the bearish momentum. From now on, Ethereum is located on the confluence of the EMA200 as well as the MA100. These have not been broken down since mid-July. Currently, the price has a bearish setup but we can expect a rebound in the next few days. Truth be told, buyers have to defend themselves here. If there is no rebound towards 0.073 BTC and Ethereum breaks lower from current levels, a return to 0.065 BTC will be inevitable.
This pair is important, it allows you to determine the asset that mainly influences the cryptocurrency market. If Ethereum continues to slide lower, altcoins will likely do very poorly. Coupled with a rebound in Bitcoin dominance, this would demonstrate a rotation of capital towards the king of cryptocurrencies. Could it be the anticipation of a new drop by market players? Potentially. However, we are not there yet, although it is necessary to preserve a bearish bias. Ethereum is therefore in a key moment against Bitcoin. Watch the identified levels so you don’t get caught out by the market.
Shitcoins are doing badly
FTX’s Shitcoin Index analysis, as of late August, has been confirmed with a return to the pivot zone at $2314. For the moment, the trend has not changed. Thus, we must preserve, for the moment, a bearish bias on shitcoins. If the index is caused to lose the pivot zone, it will undoubtedly return to its HNV which is in confluence with the VAL (2170/2205 dollars). We will have to see the reaction of the index on this level. If it is brought to break it, we will probably witness a bearish acceleration to 1966 dollars.
This index is a good way to expose yourself to the downside in this sector of the ecosystem without taking the risk of selecting a shitcoin that could perform an unexpected pump. To witness a bullish return on this index, it will have to regain the 2500 dollars by registering a top higher than the previous one, this will allow it to stay above the MA100 in confluence with the EMA13, 25 and 32 under which it evolved.
Here is the end of this crypto point of the weekend. So, do you rather opt for a bullish or bearish position? The trend is clearly bearish but for all that, an upward push should not be ruled out in order to retest certain resistances. The bitcoin dominance has calmed its bullish impulses, it is defeated on the 41.32%. Its evolution is important since it determines where capital is going in the market. At the same time, we have an Ethereum that is losing strength to the king of cryptocurrencies. A continuation of the decline will be a bad sign for the latter as well as the altcoins which could very quickly suffer a decline. Keep in mind that risk-on assets are still on the sidelines. More than ever, you must have irreproachable risk management when intervening in the financial markets.
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