Could altcoins still fall?- Bitcoin holds support for now, but the market looks heavy and rebounds remain tentative. Ethereum is struggling to outperform bitcoin. This could bode ill for altcoins if the trend continues. Indeed, ethereum is the leader of the altcoins, if it continues to be feverish, the altcoins could still fall. Has The Merge signaled the end of the rebound on altcoins, or is there still hope?
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Ethereum rebounds tentatively from the support level at $1,250
We expected a bounce at this level, because it is a support that buyers must defend. On the other hand, the rebound lacks energy and ETH remains in bearish momentum :
From the local top, Ethereum has fallen by 40% bringing it to the bracket at $1,250. This support is playing its part, but buyers are struggling to rekindle bullish momentum. Indeed, the price always evolves under the institutional bias (EMA 9/ EMA 18) and this one could quickly do resistance. If the buyers fail to change momentum here, the price may fall towards the next support at $1,000. A drop of approx. 25% which would cause altcoins to fall sharply with a lower market capitalization.
For the time being, the asset has rebounded at the level of the support and in the reloading area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement). This is an interesting area where buyers can regain control. To restart in a healthy uptrend, it will be necessary to change momentum and exceed the resistance at $1,900.
The momentum is encouraging as the RSI is still moving above the bullish trendline. It will be necessary to avoid breaking this trendline, it would mean that the buyers are losing strength.
Brittle ethereum against bitcoin
ETH has fallen against BTC since The Merge. The event did not allow the pair to come out frankly from the tidythe price only marks a DETOUR above resistance. Therefore, the price of the pair remains in a range:
The course is located on an important location. Ethereum must recover at the level of the bearish trendline, otherwise it risks falling towards the lower limit of the range. For the moment, the local top is brittle, because it was built in “V top”. With the last low having been broken, sellers have an opportunity to regain control. Moreover, the institutional bias could do resistance in the coming days. Ethereum is fragile and buyers need to show up quickly to avoid a drop of more than 15%. A return to the bottom of the range would be dangerous, because the sellers are still trapped and it would be a real gift for these traders.
Momentum has fallen back below bearish trendline. In the event of a rebound, the price could quickly find resistance.
In the very short term, Ethereum could rise again against bitcoin:
As we can see, buyers seem to find interest in the support and the momentum is showing bullish divergences. This indicates that the sellers are losing strength and traders who bet higher could benefit.
Attention, the price is close to the bearish trendlinethis could do resistance. Also, it will be necessary to change dynamics at the contact of the bearish trendline to avoid a rejection.
Altcoins still in a range
Altcoin capitalization is still stuck in a tidy Between 465 billion and 700 billion of dollars :
The course is still in bearish momentum in this weekly battle zone. Recently, the capitalization of altcoins has rebounded at the level of the intermediate support of the range at 520 billion dollars. It is an area which also corresponds to the reloading area. Buyers may regain control here, but the rebound remains tentative for now. On the other hand, the institutional bias is resistance and, if this persists, the price is likely to quickly find itself in bottom of range.
The momentum is bearish and this shows, once again, that altcoins are fragile from The Merge. We will quickly have to recover to avoid panic in the event of a new fall in cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin dominance continues to climb
The dominance of BTC helps to know where the capital is going. If capital goes to Bitcoin, the chart goes up and if capital goes to altcoins, the price goes down. The course is stuck in a tidy since May 2021 and it could still last:
Dominance was regained in extremis at 39%and the course stays in a weekly range Between 40% and 48%. The dominance could quickly be found at the level of the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) or 42.5%. In a downtrend, this level is often resistance and that could be the case in the weeks to come. If the price breaks the first stop, the dominance could join the reloading area Between 45% and 46.5%.
Altcoins missed the chance to break the range and to attract capital towards them. In this complicated macroeconomic context, it is not illogical that players find it difficult to allocate a high percentage of their capital to very risky assets. Bitcoin is among the risky assets, but it is still the value refuge cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum is fragile, buyers need to hold the support at $1,250 to avoid a 25% drop, which would bring the price down to the next support level at $1,000. Against BTC, ETH is losing ground and, if the sellers push, the price could end up once again at the bottom of the range. A bearish scenario that would allow trapped sellers to exit break even (without loss). Bitcoin dominance is still in a range, but capital is moving back into it. Dominance could be rejected at the first stop level at 42.5%, as this is an important resistance level in a downtrend. Now that The Merge is over and the macroeconomics remains uncertaincan altcoins remain attractive?
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