BTC futures on CME traded at a discount of 3.36%, surpassing their previous low. The previous discount was followed by a drop in the price of Bitcoin.
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- BTC futures on CME reached new record discount.
- They fell relative to the price of Bitcoin in the spot market.
- The previous discount caused a brief drop in the price of BTC.
- Possible sign of bearish sentiment and less risk appetite.
futures of Bitcoin have fallen significantly relative to the price of Bitcoin in the spot market, which could suggest a general bearish sentiment among traders.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the world’s largest derivatives markets, this week saw a record discount to its futures Bitcoin (BTC). The previous largest decline was seen just over a year ago and was followed by a pullback in the asset’s price. The analytics firm Arcane Research warned of the discouraging trend in a tweet Thursday.
The futures basis of the CME’s most traded BTC contract, the one-month futures contract, is trading in a sharp pullback. The previous all-time low occurred in July 2021 and was followed by a sharp compression of short positions. What will happen this time?
The futures basis on CME’s most traded BTC contract, the front-month futures contract, is trading in sharp backwardation.
The previous all-time low occurred in July 2021 and was followed by a hefty short squeeze. What will happen this time? pic.twitter.com/g4szdoifyl
— Arcane Research (@ArcaneResearch) August 25, 2022
BTC futures hit new lows
Arcane Research posted on Monday report in which he evaluated the average difference between CME BTC futures for July, expiring today, and the current market price of Bitcoin. The limited access report was picked up by various news outlets, including CoinDesk Y Cointelegraph.
For Monday, the analysis showed that last month’s futures were They were trading at a discount of 3.36%, an all-time low since that metric dipped to minus 2.39% in July 2021.
futures contracts for Bitcoin CME shares, which have been trading on the platform since 2017, have maintained a bearish trend in recent months, as the cryptocurrency market has gone through a price slowdown. However, they witnessed a short-lived rally at the beginning of the month, when the market also registered momentum.
After sinking below $18,000 in June, Bitcoin it recovered reaching $25,000 in early August. The trend did not last long as the major cryptocurrency is trading back around the $20,000 barrier.
Similar to the cash market, CME futures seemed to replicate the move, and the rally didn’t seem to last long either. as pointed out NewsBTCCME quarterly contracts tend to trade at a minimal premium, and such a steep discount for these types of products is unusual.
“Overall, the current futures basis is at levels only briefly experienced during the June dip“, confirmed Arcane Research in his report, citing Cointelegraph. The firm added that the data is “indicative of a very bearish sentiment among futures traders“.
Less appetite for cryptocurrencies
Considering that the previous historical low was followed by a short fall in the price of Bitcoin spot, researchers from Arcane raised some possible scenarios for the crypto market.
as picked up Cointelegraph, the firm argued that the “structural effects” within the derivatives market could somehow explain the movement. But also “could be a symptom of worsening liquidity or a general reduction in riskadded Vetle Lunde, an analyst at Arcane Researchwho also mentioned the turmoil in the stock markets.
The report had also highlighted that one of the reasons for the drop in the BTC futures premium could have been the sudden sell-off the market saw. Bitcoin In the past week. In accordance with NewsBTCwhich coincided with these reasons, the sell-off has also been seen among investors with vehicles with indirect exposure to Bitcoinsuch as ETFs.
Bitcoin fell in price this Friday after a speech by the president of the US Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, who reiterated the aggressive approach to curb inflation and predicted difficult times for the economy.
Analysts have generally agreed that the policy has reduced investor appetite for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Several anticipate that the crypto market could see a recovery in the face of a progressive slowdown in inflation and a more relaxed approach by the Fed.
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Article by Hannah Estefanía Pérez / DailyBitcoin
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