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Altcoins in trouble – is Bitcoin regaining control of the market?

Altcoins in turmoil again – Since the event The Merge is finished, altcoins have fallen. In just a few days, Ethereum lost more than 30 %. The update went very well, but the actors took the opportunity to sell the news. Ethereum being the leader of the altcoins, the latter followed. The dollar continues to put pressure on risky assets, and cryptocurrencies are struggling to perform. Once The Merge has passed, can altcoins rise again? Or was it just a pause in a bear market?

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Ether fails at resistance against bitcoin

Ether is in a primary tendency bullish against bitcoin. However, since May 2021, the price has been in a range and buyers from Ethereum can’t get through durably the weekly resistance:

Price of Ether against Bitcoin (3D)

The trend remains bullish for now, as the top was made on a “V top”. This type of local top remains brittle and technically bullish, as the buyers have the opportunity to make a new high. Be careful though! From now on, sellers have the opportunity to push back the price and start a change in momentum. the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is always bullish. If the EMAs cross, they will form dynamic resistance for price action.

Currently, the course has found buyers at the level of the bearish trendline, but it would take a sharper rebound and an overshoot of the last high to avoid the scenario of the reintegration of the range. The momentum showed a bearish divergence. The price could go back into a narrower range for some time. The RSI is in contact with the bearish trendline, but it can’t manage to extricate itself definitively from this zone.

In the very short term, the pair has hard to change momentum.

ETH/BTC chart is in a short-term downtrend - September 23, 2022
Price of Ether against Bitcoin (4H)

The trend is short-term bearish according to the Dow theory. the institutional bias keep pushing back the course at the moment. On the other hand, the MACD (momentum indicator) marks a bullish divergence. A divergence shows that the trend is running out of steam. This would allow, initially, to “tidy up”, ie to oscillate between a high limit and a low limit. Another divergence could set in if you close above the dotted line.

As long as the price moves below the bearish trendline, the price will remain fragile. There are some bullish signals at the momentum level. We will see if buyers manage to regain control in the days to come.

Altcoins have a chance to rally

Altcoins are going through a complicated period, far from the performance of 2021. capitalization of altcoins is in a interesting area for buyers.

Altcoin price is in the reload zone - September 23, 2022
Altcoin Cap Chart (3D)

Altcoins have broke a very important level when falling under 690 billion of dollars. The course found support at 460 billionbut the buyers quickly rubbed shoulders with the resistance. The resistance to 690 billion held and the course went in the reloading area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement). This is an area conducive to buyers. There needs to be a change in dynamics in this area.

The price could continue to range between the support at 460 billion and the resistance at 690 billion. In the very short term, the institutional bias could do resistance, but buyers have the option of regaining control in the reload zone. The momentum has triggered a change in momentum from July, it seems that buyers are regaining control in the medium term.

Bitcoin dominance bounces back

After several weeks of decline, the bitcoin dominance rebounded at the bottom of the range. As with the ETH/BTC chart, the dominance seems to want stay in a tidy for the moment.

Bitcoin Dominance Rebounds - September 23, 2022
Bitcoin Dominance Chart (3D)

Whereas The Merge has passed, dominance rebounds. Players had been buying altcoins, like Ethereum or Binance Coin, ahead of the event, but the trend has changed. The actors sold the news and ETH lost more than 30% from The Merge.

The dominance remains stuck in a row settled since May 2021. The recent dip below support was just a deviation, and the reintegration is not a positive for altcoins. However, the institutional bias could push the price back and confirm the sharp drop since the rejection at the resistance level (-20%). Moreover, the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) could also push the price back. In all cases, it will be necessary to close below 39% of dominance to confirm the downtrend and break out of this weekly range.

the ROI fell well. He bounced in the oversold zone. It would now be necessary to build a downward momentum on the momentum to maintain strength on the altcoins side.

The actors sold the Ether, once the update was done. I’Ether shows the feverishness against bitcoin and the trend should not continue. In the very short term, the momentum diverges and shows that the sellers are running out of steam. Buyers now need to take advantage of this to change momentum and start rising again. The bitcoin dominance bounced back. BTC regains control of the market, and capital returns to the king of cryptos. Dominance also remains stuck in a row since May 2021, and the recent dip below support was just a deviation. A range appears to be shaping up in altcoins for the coming weeks, but BTC may push alts down if it hits new lows below $17,600.

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