The ecosystem revolving around Bitcoin is regularly crossed by more or less realistic price forecasts. Forecasts whose amplitude is the result of the very nature of the creation of Satoshi Nakamoto and his myriad of crypto-descendants. Focus today on the latest forecast, which anticipates that Bitcoin will reach, sooner than later, the value of 1 million dollars per unit.
What is the value of 1 bitcoin? The million dollar question
Yassine Elmandjra is an analyst for the fund Ark Investment Management. Yassine is also a great optimist, and on the occasion of a interview for Bloomberg TV, the interested party made known his absolute conviction regarding the future trajectory of the course of Bitcoin. In his eyes, not only is the current severe correction suffered by the queen of cryptocurrencies not very important, but the future even looks bright. Indeed, the financial analyst anticipates seeing Bitcoin reach the staggering sum of… $1 million per unit, by 2030.
This would not only be possible, but even inevitable:
“When we look at bitcoin’s potential, we segment it across multiple use cases — everything from competing as a store of digital value, to a settlement network, to an insurance policy against arbitrary seizure of data. ‘assets. When you compile all the use cases on top of each other, you come up with an opportunity of around $28 trillion, which translates to over $1 million per bitcoin”
Yassine Elmandjra
But here, there is a catch, and even several to be perfectly honest.
Bitcoin whale under gravel
Hear a member of the investment fund Ark speak about Bitcoin – and crypto in general – and taking his word for it is a bit like accepting Mark Zuckerberg’s arguments en metaverse material (“Legs, what for?”), or having blind faith in the honesty of fishmonger Do Kwon on the freshness of its merchandise Luna Classic (“this time it will be different”).
And here in this case, the potentially dubious scents come from the fact that Ark has a very large exhibition, not only to Bitcoin, but generally to the entire crypto industry through multiple participations in majors in the sector like Coinbase. Actors whose good health, and even survival, are obviously conditioned on the confidence that investors will maintain in the potential increase in value of Bitcoin in the long term.
Is this bias sufficient to estimate that the prediction of a $1 Million Bitcoin is unrealistic because issued by people who would derive a very immediate interest from it? Probably not, but there is also a question that is as simple as it is disconcerting: do we really want a world where Bitcoin has reached and then exceeded one million per unit?
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1000 billion 1000 dollars
As recalled by Yassine Elmandjraa Bitcoin at $1 million (or even beyond) would mechanically imply monetary weight for the creation of Nakamoto $28 trillion (or $28 trillion, if you prefer).
It would be about 3 times the entire gold marketand this would bring the valuation of Bitcoin closer to that of the whole of all the physical currency in the world (about $33 trillion).
Bitcoin, “anti-system currency” (we can debate it in 2022) is initially designed to gain power as the existing monetary ecosystem fails. This raises the question of what shape would be a planetary economy that would have allowed Bitcoin to reach such a critical mass.
Ultimately, the idea of Bitcoin hitting $1 million isn’t so wild in a future that might have to get permanently used to double-digit inflation. And, in this future, more than the value of 1 bitcoin could rather end up asking the question of the absence of value… of 1 million dollars.
It’s high time to start hoarding bitcoins, but not just anyhow: Secure your assets with a Ledger key. The icing on the cake, the shipping costs are offered (commercial link).
