Le Point Macro Hebdo: the pound sterling falls, Bitcoin remains stable – The worst is yet to come?
The Market on the Edge – Volatility is at the rendezvous on the side of fiat currencies such as the euro and the pound sterling. In 2022, the pound sterling fell by almost 25% against the dollar and the euro lost more than 20% against the American currency. The dollar remains strong, and risky assets like bitcoin and US stocks aren’t the only ones taking a hit. With a dollar on the rise again, can BTC and the US market still resist? The US market is on the precipice and bitcoin is hovering around the psychological threshold of $20,000. What can happen in the financial markets? Let’s look at the different possible scenarios in the Point Macro Hebdo.
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Bitcoin still hesitant at the support level
Buyers continue to defend the supportbut it would be necessary to quickly get out of this zone to avoid slipping under the last lows at $17,600 :
The dynamic remains bearish in contact with the last support before a new low under $17,600. Buyers need to re-ignite bullish momentum by starting by making a new high above $22,800. the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is bearish and could act as resistance in the coming days. Attention, in case of new low, the next strong support is at $12,000. An additional drop of 40% which would hurt altcoins extremely badly.
The momentum could diverge in the coming days in the event of a close above 49 of RSI. This would show shortness of momentum on the sell side, and a likely breakout of the bearish trendline at the RSI level. Buyers have the option to save support, now show up and close above $22,800.
Dollar sucks in capital, gold breaks weekly support
The dollar is on the rise again
While we hoped for a fall in the dollar to regain strength in risky assets, the dollar continues to climb. The pound sterling and theeuro continue to fall against the dollar and it does not seem ready to stop:
The dollar is in momentum bullish, the parable is still valid. Capital continues to flow into the US currency. The next resistance is now at 119 dots, the price seems to be heading there. The dollar will have to weaken to find performing risky assets.
The momentum is always bullishit has recently rebounded at the level of the bullish trendline. On the RSI, it will be necessary to monitor this trendline and possible differences that could happen in the coming weeks.
Gold continues to fall below support at $1,690
Gold is considered a safe-haven assetbut since the fall in risky assets, gold has not benefited from this to perform. The dollar attracts capitaland gold does not seem to interest market participants:
Gold is currently trading below the weekly support at $1,690. The dynamic is bearishand the price could drop to $1,550. In the meantime, the scenario of a DETOUR remains possible, it will be necessary to find a bullish momentum in contact with the substrate. For now, gold is breaking the tidy installed since April 2020.
The momentum is always bearishbut buyers have the option of setting up a bullish divergence. To do this, you must quickly recover and close above 47 of RSI. If this divergence takes place, the fall below the support would only be a deviation of the course. This will have to be monitored carefully in the weeks to come.
The US market on the brink
The US market continues to fall and is back at the lows of June 2022. The macroeconomic context does not improve, the dollar continues to rise, and the US market could sink.
The S&P 500 soon at $3,500?
In the last edition of Point Macro Hebdo, we mentioned the possibility of a return of buyers to the reloading area Between $3,900 and $3,785. The price fell without hesitation, buyers seem stuck:
The price is at the low point of June, this is the last chance for buyers. This is the last chance to avoid a new low, and thus relaunch the bearish momentum. A double bottom may fall into place, but buyers are going to have to show up. Cryptocurrencies are very correlated in the US market, a fall in the S&P 500 would likely drag Bitcoin and altcoins down with it.
Momentum is at a decisive point. The RSI could rebound at the level of the bullish trendline installed since June 2022. To maintain the latest lows at the price level, it would be necessary to maintain this dynamic at the momentum level.
NASDAQ must hold low at $11,000
The NASDAQ is in the same situation as the S&P 500, it is also close to a new low which could bring the price back to the level of the bracket at $9,700 :
This summer’s rally has been totally erased. In a few weeks, the NASDAQ lost nearly 20%. Buyers should show up at the lowest to $11,000 to avoid a panic movement which would bring the price back to $9,700. The momentum remains solid. Indeed, in the event of a new low, the RSI could form a new bullish divergence. For buyers, closing under 29 of RSI.
US indices could continue to tidy in the coming weeks. For this, buyers must show up quickly.
Bitcoin is trying somehow to maintain the psychological threshold of $20,000. This support is beginning to weaken, buyers need to show up quickly. As long as the dollar is bullish, it is necessary to be vigilant at the level of risky assets. Risky assets like Bitcoin and the US market tend to perform when the dollar is weak. These risky assets are not the only ones to lose value, state currencies are starting to take a serious dive. The euro and the pound sterling fall by more than 20% in 2022 against the dollar. It will be necessary to closely follow the evolution of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, because a new fall would have a strong impact on cryptocurrencies.
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